The Colombian army killed Alfonso Cano, the head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, Farc, last week. Many argue this is another significant step towards the end of almost five decades of armed conflict that has produced about 150,000 deaths, thousands of kidnappings and forced disappearances and displaced 4 million people. Nobody knows for sure what will follow.
After the last failed attempts at negotiations in 2002, the government's all-out war on Farc guerrillas has now lasted almost a decade. But victory remains elusive and the president, Juan Manuel Santos, has therefore not dismissed a return to peace talks. Lessons from Sri Lanka and Chechnya show that pushing for a full military victory comes at a high cost in terms of democracy and human rights.
The sad irony is that Cano was probably best placed among Farc ranks to lead insurgents back to civilian life. Thousands of armed men without political leadership are likely a bigger threat to the country than an insurgent force with a political discourse, no matter how discredited. Fuelled by money from drugs, criminal gangs are spreading, despite a massive surge in the military forces.
To achieve peace, Colombia needs to fundamentally rethink its approach. The first step is to reframe the peace process itself: the time for solving the structural problems of the country at a negotiating table has passed. This echoes developments in places like the Basque country, people would not accept decisions on the future of the country to be taken by a limited number of government and rebel representatives. There is an expectation of a more inclusive and democratic process of political change.
Second, there is a need to broaden the analysis of the conflict. Insurgencies are only the most visible symptom of a multilayered conflict. A complex mix of criminal actors linked to political, security and corporate interests all benefit from the current status quo and will oppose any change. Many people in Colombia have never experienced rule of law and accountable local governments. The increasing presence of mining companies is creating new conflicts as they pitch up in environmentally sensitive areas and on indigenous ancestral land. International corporations still have a long way to go to prove their presence is beneficial to society at large.
A third step is to work for a shared understanding of the roots of conflict and a common vision for a better future. Rebel forces certainly have limited social support. But inequality remains high and many are still calling for basic rights to life and dignity.
The country would benefit from a broad and inclusive consultation to draft a national peace and development policy like the Philippines did back in 1993. Disagreements on the problems and the solutions persist, but a majority of people share one common understanding: the need for change. This offers enough common ground to reframe the current divide between the elites and the excluded, and instead promote alliances between those who believe in democratic values and the traditional power-holders.
Recently there have been signs of hope. In June this year, the government passed a law which for the first time recognises the state's culpability in terrorist violence: the Victims' Law is a landmark development in a conflict-affected country. Restitution of land to millions of forcibly displaced peasants is now a national priority. And the victory of former rebel, Gustavo Petro, in Bogota's municipal elections is a signal of political inclusion with the potential to trigger badly needed national reconciliation.
Other indicators are more alarming. Threats to and killings of human rights defenders, social leaders and political opposition are still rampant. Patronage politics and criminal control of democratic institutions remain strong. Armed conflict and militarisation has polarised society and normalised violence. And social movements are still being stigmatised as guerrilla proxies.
Many will continue to claim that places like Colombia, the Middle East and Kashmir are doomed to violence. But then nobody anticipated that decades-old dictatorships in northern Africa could and would fall. There are no ready recipes for building peace. There is therefore a need to keep trying innovative and inclusive approaches, in Colombia and elsewhere. The outside world has a crucial role to play in supporting and sometimes legitimising such initiatives.