December's Rule 5 draft could impact September call-ups

Eight relievers in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen right now, and none has a lower WHIP or a higher strikeout rate than Jonathan Holder. Five starters in the Triple-A rotation, none has a better ERA or lower opponents' batting average than Jordan Montgomery. Those two might be the best pitchers on the Triple-A staff right now. 

And there's a solid chance neither will be called up when rosters expand on Thursday.

That's because December's Rule 5 draft is a key factor in determining September's big league call-ups.

Holder and Montgomery will not be Rule 5 eligible this offseason -- neither will position players Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade and Dustin Fowler -- and so the Yankees have to weigh roster restrictions when determining whether to put them on the big league roster for the final month. Here's a basic attempt to explain the situation:

• Who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter?

Let's lift this straight from MLB.com's FAQ section:Players who were signed when they were 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years are eligible, as are players who were signed at 18 and have played for five years. All players on a Major League Baseball team's 40-man roster, regardless of other eligibility factors, are "protected" and ineligible for the Rule 5 Draft.

For our purposes, that essentially means college draft picks from 2013 and high school picks from 2012 will be eligible for the first time this winter (basically anyone else drafted 2012 or earlier will be eligible as well). Also, international amateurs signed in 2012 or earlier. The Yankees will have to choose which of those eligible players to protect by putting them on the 40-man roster. This winter, they protected Ben Gamel and Johnny Barbato, having already protected guys like Rob Refsnyder, Nick Goody and James Pazos through in-season big league call-ups.

Among the notable Rule 5 candidates this winter are: Kyle Higashioka, Jorge Mateo, Miguel Andujar, Jake Cave, Cito Culver, Dietrich Enns, Brady Lail, Ronald Herrera, Giovanny Gallegos, Mark Montgomery and Tyler Webb. Higashioka and Culver will actually become free agents if they're not put on the 40-man. My early guess is that Higashioka, Andujar, Mateo, Enns and Webb are the priorities.

• Is the 40-man roster going to be crowded this winter?

The short answer is, yes, the 40-man roster always feels a bit crowded in the winter and at some point, a team inevitably has to DFA someone to open a roster spot. Right now it's at capacity. But it's not necessarily filled with difficult to remove pieces.

Dustin Ackley, Nathan Eovaldi and Anthony Swarzak are non-tender candidates, but the Yankees also have Greg Bird, Conor Mullee and Branden Pinder who have to be activated from the 60-day disabled list to take up spots. There are some bullpen DFA candidates -- Blake Parker, J.R. Graham, perhaps shuttle relievers like Kirby Yates, Richard Bleier and Johnny Barbato -- but even if the Yankees remove all five relievers just mentioned, that doesn't open enough roster spots to protect every strong Rule 5 candidate.

Trades can open more spots -- we saw that with Jose Pirela this winter -- but the Yankees are surely going to be in the market to acquire a player or two as well. It's certainly not the tightest 40-man roster we've ever seen, but every spot is pretty valuable.

• So why not call-up the best players available? 

It's all about opportunity cost. The Yankees do not need to have either Holder or Montgomery occupying a 40-man spot this offseason. If those two are on the roster, someone else will not be. That means either leaving another player exposed to the Rule 5 draft or being forced to designate some other player for assignment. Giving Holder one month in the big league bullpen could force them to ultimately designate a guy like Mullee. Giving Montgomery a spot start down the stretch could be the difference between protecting or exposing Enns to the Rule 5.

Is it worth it? Maybe. Holder in particular has made a very compelling case, especially after his 12-strikeout game this weekend. His impact down the stretch might be worth the ultimate cost of losing a fringe reliever. Or, if this season is such a long shot, perhaps it's better to prioritize having both Holder and that fringe reliever next season. There's surely a benefit to giving Holder some experience, but that benefit could come at a cost of another player.

So, yes, Holder and Montgomery have been excellent since they got to Triple-A, but that doesn't mean they're slam dunks for September call-ups.